Electoral surveys are essential tools for understanding public opinion trends before elections, helping to map voter behavior. Conducted by specialized institutes or entities, these surveys capture voter preferences, providing a snapshot of the electoral scenario. However, their impact and function go beyond numbers and graphs, and are governed by a series of rules and processes that ensure the transparency and reliability of this data.

What are they and how do they work?

Electoral surveys are sample surveys that reflect the opinion of a representative portion of the population, allowing us to predict possible results and map the electoral scenario. The methodologies may vary, but generally include face-to-face, telephone or online interviews, covering a series of questions that help measure voting intentions, candidate rejection and voters' perceptions on various topics.

Types of electoral research?

There are different types of polls, and each one plays a specific role during the electoral process:

1. Voting Intention Survey: It is a quantitative survey that assesses voters' preferences at a given moment, indicating who is leading the electoral race. This type of research works with numerical data, collected from representative samples, and presents an overview of voting intentions in the current context of the election.
   
2. Rejection Research: Indicates which candidates are most rejected by the electorate, an important metric for campaigns.
   
3. Qualitative Research: Unlike quantitative ones, they do not focus on numbers, but rather on voters' perceptions, opinions and feelings about candidates and proposals.
   
4. Tracking Polls: Conducted daily or with regular frequency, they capture subtle changes in voter behavior over time.
   
5. Spontaneous Research: In this method, voters are asked freely, without being presented with a list of candidates, about who they would vote for if the election were held at that time. This type of survey reveals how engaged the voter is or how much he or she has already made up his or her mind, as the answer comes without the influence of pre-selected names.
   
6. Stimulated Research: Unlike spontaneous polling, in stimulated polling the interviewee chooses his/her answer from a list of candidates presented in the poll. This format is usually useful for measuring voter knowledge about candidates and the consolidation of voting intentions.

Role of law and transparency

According to article 33 of the Electoral Law (Law No. 9,504/1997), any poll related to elections must be registered in the Electoral Poll Registration System (PesqEle) of the Electoral Court at least five days before its release. This process is crucial to ensure the integrity and transparency of the data.

To register the survey, companies must provide information such as who commissioned the survey, the method used, the amount invested, as well as details about the sampling plan, such as the distribution by gender, age and income of the interviewees. Another important point is the name of the statistician responsible, as well as the margin of error and the confidence level of the survey.

Control and supervision

Although registration is mandatory, the Electoral Court does not control the publication of results in advance, which is the sole responsibility of the company that conducted the survey. This means that the methodology, data obtained and publication of results must be available for audit by political parties, candidates, coalitions, party federations and the Public Prosecutor's Office.

These stakeholders can challenge an electoral survey if they identify irregularities, or question its methodology and results through legal action. This oversight process is important to prevent the dissemination of fraudulent surveys, the disclosure of which is considered a crime, punishable by detention and fines.

Public access and consultation

Registered surveys are made available for public consultation on the website of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Any citizen can access the system Search Him and obtain details about the surveys carried out, such as the registration number, the period in which they were carried out, the number of interviews, the margin of error and the name of the responsible entity.

This transparency not only makes the electoral process more reliable, but also provides voters with tools to verify the veracity of information, especially given the growing risk of the spread of fake news.